Today the Forage Fish Campaign submitted formal comments to the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) on 2027 menhaden quotas. We’re demanding that the ASMFC wake up to what’s going on around them and finally end the reduction fishery. A big quota cut is needed–and there’s only enough menhaden left for harvest by the bait sector.
Our comments were late. Formal comments for the meeting materials were due by October 19, with supplemental comments due on November 3. Our comments will still be circulated to Commission members.
Why were we late? Because we wanted to see the actual catch data for 2025, which the ASMFC staff conveniently released on November 4, a day after the comment deadline closed.
We wanted to see the catch data because of what we have been hearing and seeing, which is that last year’s catch was low and this year’s is even lower. And the data confirms our worst fears – the menhaden stock is crashing.
Remember that in 2021 the ASMFC set absurdly high coastwide quotas (233,500 metric tons)--the highest quota ever–claiming that “new science” showed that the stock was far more abundant than previously believed. In 2025, ASMFC scientists had to admit that that new science was junk and that the stock was at least 37% smaller than estimated. The managers then lowered the quota for 2026 to 186,000 mt, which was far higher than their own science said was needed to meet its management targets and to help striped bass to rebuild.
The 2026 quota was not based on science, but instead set to protect the Canadian-owned reduction plant in Reedville, Virginia. The 186,000 mt is what the industry had caught in 2024. In press releases congratulating itself for being conservation minded, it touted the reduction as a 20% cut, knowing full well that it was a paper cut with no real conservation benefit.
The warning signs should have been blinking for everyone then; with a fleet of giant motherships capable of holding up to two million fish each, and associated chase boats and a squadron of spotter planes, the industry caught almost 50,000 mt less than the quota allowed in 2024. That made us wonder about 2025.
Now we can plainly see what is happening. The actual catch in 2025 was 145,833 mt. This is almost 90,000 mt below the 2025 quota of 233,550 mt. This isn’t happening because Omega Protein suddenly forgot how to catch fish; it is happening because the fish are simply not out there.
And things are looking even worse in 2026. With less than a month left in the season, in spite of almost daily flights up and down the Atlantic, the reduction industry is still parked at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay trying to limit out on the Bay Reduction Fishery Cap of 51,000 mt.
The menhaden are simply not out there, which is exactly what fishermen and bait shop owners have been saying all summer and fall (Where’s the Bait?). Lack of menhaden is also why we see osprey nesting failures rivaling the DDT days, from the Chesapeake Bay north to Massachusetts.
Next week the ASMFC will meet to set new quotas for menhaden. Given the fact that the Commission has already chosen to ignore the most recent science that shows its models are still overestimating stock size (claiming that seven weeks did not give them time to review it), and the fact that they appear to be trying to hide 2025 catch data from the public, it does not give one faith that they intend to do what is necessary to protect menhaden, striped bass, osprey, or the ecosystem and all the people who depend on healthy fisheries.
Recreational and commercial fishermen, bait shop owners, birders, whale watchers, coastal business leaders will be watching next week and keeping score. Will the states that do not have a reduction industry – every state except Virginia – do what they have already done in their own states and end the reduction industry before it is too late? The warning signs are flashing red and the clock is ticking.